After 22 months of growth, are Dallas home prices about to hit a plateau? Could be.
The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index showed a 10.2 percent year-over-year increase in Dallas home prices according to their most recent 20-city composite report. Dallas now ranks with 13 of the top 20 cities measured by Case-Shiller’s HPI with double digits. Nationally, the home price index is up 13.4 percent year-over-year.
But are we about to peak? Perhaps, as analysts with S&P say home price increases are slowing quite a bit. That break in momentum could be good news for buyers who are having a rough time find a home in Dallas with tight inventory and bidding wars around every corner. Case-Shiller’s HPI showed Dallas prices up only 0.2 percent from November to December, and a 0.1 percent increase from October to November.
“Only six cities – Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, San Francisco, Tampa and Washington – posted gains for the month of December,” the report stated. “Miami held its leadership position with an increase of 0.9% followed by Las Vegas at +0.4%. Atlanta, Detroit and Los Angeles remained relatively unchanged – Detroit remains the only city below its January 2000 level.”
According to Steve Brown’s DMN story, S&P’s David Blitzer thinks the rebound period of the housing recovery may be behind us:
“Gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over,” said S&P’s David Blitzer. “Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing.
“Existing home sales fell 5.1 percent in January from December to the slowest pace in over a year,” Blitzer said. “Permits for new residential construction and housing starts were both down and below expectations.”
Still, Blitzer points out that the Case-Shiller index in 2013 had it’s largest gain since 2005.
And Dallas-area home prices have been up from the previous year for 22 straight months. Local home prices are up by more than 5 percent from where they were before the recession, according to Case-Shiller.
We’ll have to see what happens as the spring selling season hits, but steady prices and an uptick in inventory would be good news overall.
What’s your perspective? Will we see home prices continue to increase, or are we about to hit a plateau?