Nice Way To End 2014: October Dallas Home Prices Up 7.6% Over Last Year

CaseShiller Oct 2014

Graphic: The Dallas Morning News

So here’s the reason why a lot of Realtors, I do mean a lot, will be drinking Veuve Cliquot tonight: Dallas is one of the top five markets in the country for home price increases, according to the folks at Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller.

The numbers from October home sales are in, and Dallas home prices rose 7.6 percent in October from the same month in 2013. Makes me kind of proud we are right up there with Miami, San Francisco and Las Vegas — the only cities with higher price appreciation than us.

The October appreciation was almost identical to the annual increase we saw in September,  7.4 percent.

“We are seeing hints that prices could end 2014 on a strong note and accelerate into 2015,” S&P’s David M. Blitzer said in the report. “Two months ago, all 20 cities were experiencing weakening annual price increases.

“This time, 12 cities had weaker annual price growth, but eight saw the pace of price gains pick up,” he said. “Seasonally adjusted, all 20 cities had higher prices than a month ago.”

And you may need a sip or two of bubbly to comprehend this fact : Dallas-area home prices are 13 percent higher NOW than they were before the recession hit. That’s right, we have out-bubbled the bubble.

And here’s why this news is pretty dang amazing: Case-Shiller’s index only tracks prices of single-family home resales. Does not include condominiums and townhouses or new construction.

In fact, David Brown of Metrostudy Inc. expects even more value gains next year. He told Steve Brown:

“We are expecting another year of strong appreciation in 2015,” Brown said. “Even if job growth were to slow from the torrid pace of 2014, demands for housing is likely to remain very strong into 2015.

“The Dallas-Fort Worth market is heading into 2015 with even less inventory than was in the market a year ago,” he said. “We expect the appreciation rate in 2015 to be fairly similar to 2014.”

I know what you are thinking, and I’m thinking it too: oil. Most experts I have consulted tell me the cities where the economy is highly oil-dependent might see some of the laborers go home, and those are the jobs that will be cut first. An interior designewr told me yesterday that whenever she works in Midland, the budget is… well, there is no budget.

Still, in Dallas this does not necessarily mean that the high end luxury market is popping: agents tell me many of the larger, $5 million plus properties are not moving, not even showing. What’s hot? Big, leafy lots. Luxury homebuilders are in hog heaven. Most transaction volume is at the $500,000 and below level, which is also where inventory is so very, very limited.